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Game Theory and Avoiding Skill Shots

Creator: jimbobjenkins January 15, 2011 10:07am
jimbobjenkins
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Permalink | Quote | PM | +Rep January 15, 2011 10:07am | Report
(I wrote this--as well as a few other similar threads--a while back on the LoL official forums. I came across this site and thought I would repost it.)

A lot of people thought my last intersection between game theory and League of Legends was interesting, so I’m going to try it again now. Long time players will respond to this post with an “obv,” but it evidently is not so obvious to the newer players…

I used to play Morgana back a while ago, and I will still use her every now and then depending if I am in a Morg-mood or if my team could use her abilities. For those of you unfamiliar with her, Morgana’s Q ability—Dark Binding—is one of the most powerful freezes in the game, binding the first opposing minion or champion it hits for as long as three seconds. The victim will still be able to cast spells, but he/she/it won’t be going anywhere for a good amount of time.

What keeps such a great spell in check is that it is completely skill based. Morgana casts Dark Binding in a straight line. If the opposing champion is standing behind a line of his or her own minions, you’ll just strike a minion. You will probably get a kill out of it, but that’s not really worth the mana spent to cast the spell. Moreover, even if you have a clear line toward the enemy, he or she can step left or right to avoid Dark Binding’s line of fire, and it will just zoom past him or her harmlessly.

The good news for Morgana is that Dark Binding shoots pretty fast, so an unprepared opponent is almost always going to get hit. The bad news is that an opponent who can anticipate the shot coming—or who is just constantly moving around—will likely avoid it. This creates a bit of a guessing game between Morgana and the opponent, much like that famous mind game from the Princess Bride involving wine.

For those of you unfamiliar with that scene, a hero challenges a kidnapper to a game of wits. The hero has two glasses of wine, one of which he has poisoned with a fast-acting toxin (he claims). The kidnapper will select either the glass in front of him or in front of the hero. The hero will take the other and both will drink. One will promptly die. The kidnapper then runs through a ridiculous line of logic, trying to deduce which is poisoned.

Fortunately, the solution is fairly simple. Game theorists call this type of game “Matching Pennies.” Two players simultaneously put a coin on heads or tails. If both are on the same side, player one wins both coins. If the pennies do not match, then player two wins both coins. I explain the solution in this video:

Basically, both players should flip their coins in equilibrium. Even if the other player has some sort of magic ability to read the other’s mind, the mind reader will be unable to win more than half of his games if the non-mind reader flips the coin as prescribed.

How does this relate to League of Legends? Well, you need to be predictably unpredictable. Ron Artest is the perfect example of this. Artest is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but you wouldn’t necessarily think that if you watched him play for a few minutes. At any given moment, Artest is probably flailing all over the place for no particular reason. It is very disconcerting, and it makes him look foolish.

And it is also the best thing he can possibly do.

As an offensive player, it pays to know exactly what your defender is doing. If he is guarding you to the right, you can drive left. If he is will jump to block your next shot, you should do a pump fake, get the defender into the air, and then take a shot. If he is about to double up your teammate on the perimeter, you should pass it into the post. The problem is that you have absolutely no idea what Ron Artest is going to be doing from one moment to the next. As such, you inevitably have to try to do something (the shot clock will eventually expire). Most of the time, you will be successful. Some of the time, though, Artest will be in the way and grab the ball from you. He is substantially more successful at doing these kinds of things than your average NBA player, who will normally play a predictably static defense.

Likewise, when you are laning against Morgana or another character with an ability similar to Dark Binding, you need to be predictably unpredictable. Constantly moving to the left or the right will make it incredibly difficult for Morgana to hit you. Of course, you can’t always move left and then move right—that would be predictable. You essentially have to just move around looking pretty aimless. Morgana will still hit you with the stun every now and then, but you will see a lot of misses as well. And that’s really the best you can hope for. As I have improved my level and ELO rating, I have noticed more and more players instinctively understanding this principle. But back at the beginning, it seemed as though everyone would just stand around waiting to get Binded.

How can you improve your chances as Morgana? Well, you have to change the game. As it turns, the mind game in the Princess Bride example was all a lie. The hero had spent the past couple of years acquiring immunity to the toxin. He poisoned both cups, knowing that he would survive and the kidnapper would die no matter which cup his rival chose.

There are at least three ways Morgana can change the game in such a manner:

1) Shoot from the bushes. When you are in the bushes, your opponent will not be able to see which angle the stun will be coming from. As a result, if he wanders around along the same radius of your stun, then it doesn’t matter when you fire Dark Binding—it will hit regardless.

2) Gank. Dark Binding is best used when you are with a teammate or two, as Morgana isn’t the best damage-per-second character in the game, so having a friend to finish off the bound enemy is a good idea. Moreover, if your opponent doesn’t know you are coming, he probably won’t be moving around in a predictably unpredictable pattern. Constantly moving around like that has a cost, as it makes it harder to damage enemy minions. Odds are you will be looking at a stationary target if they don’t see you coming.

3) Fire into a crowd. It is hard to miss when there are enemy champions to the left, to the right, and directly in front of you. Plus Dark Binding is really strong when all five of you are in a team fight and one guy on their end cannot move.

In summary:

If you are laning against someone with skill shots, wander around in a randomized way. This will frustrate your opponent and cause them to spend mana on spells that end up dealing no damage. If you have such skill shots, take advantage of lazy opponents by blasting them repeatedly; against clever enemies, try to anticipate how they are trying to be random, and aim for that area. Failing that, you can try to change the game by blind-siding your enemies at times they won’t expect you to be coming and thus will not be moving.
nand
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Permalink | Quote | PM | +Rep January 15, 2011 10:40am | Report
What's important to note here is that it's all dependent on practice, practice and more practice. The more you play, the easier it will be for you to dodge skillshots and run around unpredictably - it will be in your blood.

Even with the best theory and tactics, a novice will still have a very hard time. Instead of carefully examining tactics, it's probably best to just keep on playing until you learn (unless you're simply a very bad player).
SinDelta
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Permalink | Quote | PM | +Rep January 18, 2011 3:59am | Report
Very interesting, i like this a lot haha. Oh and nice Princess Bride reference.
Check out my youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/JohnnySceneTM

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