It's fine to blind pick, there is no insta lose matchup.

I always ban Naut, it's just not fun to play vs at all he does too much.

UPDATE:

Comet is best!

the buffs are amazing!

For first strike:

If it feels like a lane you can't bully and win easy early, chill and go even in lane until you get Stormsurge: Time your E poke with First Strike every time its up, then walk back and repeat. (boring but its a nice guarantee)

After stormsurge you get to have lots of fun, enjoy the burst damage, one shot the squishys and maybe even the not-so-squishys in late game :)

Comet:

Quite standard, poke spam early but you scale quite well with the runeset and comet does much more damage when ranged now :D

First Strike:

The runes give you early power with +51 AP once you get Stormsurge, hopefully before 15min!

You also keep up in scaling a bit better with these runes.

-Poke in lane in timing with first strike & manaflow together.

-Jack of all trades fully stacks with Supp item + tier 1 boots + Stormsurge

-Cashback gold from Stormsurge + Rabadons = 473

-First strike can easily give 400+ gold before shadowflame so you get your items much faster.

Zazzaks is nice to default to, always works, little damage boost.
Celestial is fine too if vs assassins and no high range poke like xerath etc that will just break the shield.

The build order is super important for jack of all trades (joat) and cashback

Upgrading to sorcs AFTER stormsurge just works out better in every way for the synergy with JOAT + cashback

Selling lost chapter last item for cryptbloom is great for extra pen + it keeps JOAT max stacks so thats why its kind of worth instead of void staff.

(Old Tech)
Rabadons 2nd is much more component & cashback friendly compared to Shadowflame as you can buy both Rods instead of getting Shadowflame first then sitting on 2k gold waiting to upgade to Rabadons its hard to explain it just works.

Actualizer as the capstone works great as long as you are actually remembering to use it pls dont forget!! its a straight up 17% dmg boost which can easily be 500 dmg to one target and ofc multiplied if you hit AOE. It heavily out damages any other mana item and there isnt really anything else worth selling lost chapter for, Maybe void staff if theres ridiculous amounts of resists on MOST enemies)