I think the nerf will be more mid-game related, early game will still be really strong because the e of varus got no nerfs and he can still dictate a lane by using a karma comet or whatever runs comet. The nerf is more mid-late related because, sometimes, varus was just way too strong even on late game and that's not fair at all. If you're good early you shouldn't win late, but that's not like that for varus lethality. The real problem gets when you get infernal soul or you just close your build which doesn't cost a lot, so yeah that's a nerf to mid-late and i think it will still be viable because of his r.

I may do a guide on Aphelios as he's one of the best adc in soloq/competitive right now. The only problem is that I have few time and the champ mechanics are kinda insane to explain precisely on a written guide but I'll do my best ^^. Also your question is kinda weird without a context because You should never force for a kill if they're poking you. What I'm saying is that when you're against a poke bot lane you need to decide how to handle the question, You can do it in 3 ways. Go early game like them with some varus/caitlyn things which are pretty safe picks as they can attack from a really high range; Going midgame with things like Ezreal or late-game with things like Aphelios and Jinx. I personally enjoy outscaling my enemy with things like Aphelios and Jinx or such because after the first recall, they just get so much out of bloodline rune and if support matchup it's good, you get to see your huge spike witch is usually at 3 items. Just remember that poke comps now are so good because of how short the games are being on ranked (usually around the 20min mark) but that doesn't mean you have to play them. That's why varus build works. It's cheaper, safer and really easy to play.But now, let's suppose you decide to scale and they pick against you early game stuff; What You will surely have to do it's to farm up till you get your power spike item and not forcing over them because you're doing their own game if You do so. You just have to ask yourself every time before the game "What's my win condition? How can I approach my playstyle according to the enemy comp? And then You decide what to pick. I hope I answered your question; Also if you have any other questions just come on stream and I'll try to answer your questions as much as I can.

Thank you! :3