League of Legends (LoL) Question: Crit Chance

Posted in Runes 2,975

Crit Chance

Asked by A Chubby Baby on August 26, 2013

I heard that if you have a 1% crit chance from your runes, every time you attack and don't get a crit, the chance that you might crit in the next attack actually goes up slightly (eg. 1.05%).

Can anyone confirm this?

Answers (3)

(538) |

It might seem so, but no.

It is like a coin flip. If you flip a coin 100 times, then you will probably have around 50 times heads, and 50 times tails. Therefor, if you have 10 times heads in a row, it would be more likely that the next coin flip, you will have a tails. However, the next coin flip, you get heads, because it is still 50% chance.

Same story with the crit thing :P

(151) |

:P

OK OK YOU WERE RIGHT GMD.

heppy ? ;3

(531) |

As said: Dice have no memory. :P

(151) |

It's funny because your post contradicts itself Meiyjhe :P.

There's this thing called ''Gambler's fallacy''. People tend to believe that if you get 30 times heads in a row, it is way more likely that you will get tails right after but it's completely incorrect. 50% chance is 50%, nature doesn't ''even it out''... it's random!

League's crits used to be like that so you could get 20 crits in a row with 10% crit chance but I think something like 1 year ago they changed it to prevent the abusive cases. Basically they removed even more ''randomness'' from the already not-really-truly-random system. Rioters specifically state that crits now work like if Gambler's fallacy was a correct thing. If you crit 3 times in a row with 50% chance, it is less likely that your next attack will crit. It's only that way because Riot made it that way on purpose, it shouldn't be like that naturally.